My wagers so far total $24. A good wager for the Derby is $36. Some time I'll explain my $12 base bet theory. So, I've got $12 to go. I'll say a $1 exacta box saver on Lion Heart and Read the Footnotes. Also, a $5 and $5, win place wager on Lion Heart. This last investment is to save me the chagrin of a total loss if I've picked the right key horse but nothing else works out. Where is my confidence? I reserve the right to make one last change tomorrow night or Saturday morning. You always have the concern about a scratch, but the other unknown is the odds. We'll have some indication by tomorrow night. Lion Heart is 10-1 in the morning line but I think 6-1 is more reasonable and I'm all right about 6-1. If he's 4-1 (which I would doubt) I may do some rethinking because then there will be no value.

The Derby is Saturday. I gave you my picks a couple of weeks ago, but I've changed my mind. And I may change again. I'm dropping Tapit. The Wood was very slow this year. I'll add Imperialism who had some tough luck in the Santa Anita Derby. He also picks up Kent Desormeaux to ride. My four horses are Lion Heart, Imperialism, The Cliff's Edge (the favorite right now), and Smarty Jones who drew the tough but not impossible # 15 post. I will key Lion Heart, who should be able to avoid trouble. Lets try a $2 exacta partial box wheel keying on Lion Heart ($12) and also a $1 trifecta key with Lion Heart on the top and bottom ($12). I will reserve another few dollars for a later report. Read the Footnotes worries me.

There has been a delay in reporting the final two paragraphs of "Insomniatic Eldridge Observations" because Sarah has been working on a story she will actually get paid for. Considering the hours she's put into it, the compensation will be less than minimum wage. In any event, she's been monopolizing the computer, and I've been doing more or less full time child care. To the conclusion.

In summary, the primary observation is that the full moon always rises within an hour of sunset, and the highs and lows associated with the spring tides always occur around the same time of day throughout the year at a particular location. The secondary but also important observation is that the new moon highs and lows are always most accentuated during daylight while nocturnal accentuation applies to the full moon tides, with the lowest of the lows always occurring in the evening near the summer solstice but always during daylight as the fall approaches, and lastly, the simultaneous new or full moon at perigee brings us the most extraordinary tidal ranges of the year.

All the above, except the last, can be discerned without reliance on published tables or technical astronomical observation.

Both boys now talk a lot. I understand practically everything Skipper says, but only part of what Henry says. Fortunately, Skipper understands everything Henry says, so he is able to translate. The other day, both boys were in the bath. Henry said something to me, none of which I understood. "Skipper" I said, "What did Henry just say?" And Skipper replied, "He said that if you don't get him out of the bath, he's going to shrivel up like a prune!" So I helped Henry out of the bath.

Just as I suggested that our ancestors of a century ago were fully aware that the full moon rises as the sun sets, so I also expect our coastal ancestors of a century ago, especially those who relied on the sea for their livelihood, were aware that spring tides always occurred at the same time of day in their location and that the magnitude of the full and new moon spring tides, whether daylight or nocturnal, changed with the seasons. These events were observable without reliance on astronomical measurement. Only the affect of the moons elliptic, which is not seasonal or predictable based upon some secondary event and which causes the daily differences in relative highs and lows, would have required reliance on specialized technical analysis.

From May through July, the spring tide daylight lows are not as extraordinary as those at night. Beginning in mid August, however, and continuing to the autumnal equinox and beyond to the dreaded winter solstice, the daylight spring tide lows are the exceptional lows of the lunar month, especially at new moon. This is the time of year for daylight cruisers to be alert when transiting through shallow channels. This daylight accentuation as the summer progresses into fall results from the change in the sun's declination relative to the equator.

There are many well marked channels, maintained by human efforts or by nature, which record one fathom depths at "mean low water." These are the depths recorded on most but not all East Coast charts. On the West Coast, with their mixed tides, the charts record the mean of the lower lows. I could now explain the distinction between means lows, mean lower lows, mean of the lower lows, and mean lower lows spring. I will not. I would only report from my personal observations on the East Coast with either a full or new moon at perigee, the low tides are lower than reported on our charts. Half a foot at least from New York to Chatham, a foot or more North of the Cape. Far less as you move South.

While it may be that the full moon always rises within an hour of sunset and the spring tides always occur at the same time of day, the time of day of the spring highs and lows, as recorded earlier, varies by location. Also, the highs and lows evidence themselves well after the astronomical forces reach their peak. For example, the high of the spring tides typically occur a day or two after the full or new moon. The literature, whether it be Eldridge, Chapman or Bowditch, explain these aberrations by reference to the geological contours of the submerged land approaching the shore, and the theoretical speed at which water can flow from one place to another. As an example, the Moon rises in Boston just 2 minutes before it rises in Providence yet the high tide in Boston occurs over three hours after the high in Providence or New York City.

For those of you new to this Blog, the italicized sections are a paragraph by paragraph publication of a non-fiction piece I prepared in 1998 entitled "Insomniatic Eldridge observations". In retrospect I wish I'd posted the whole document as one posting. Too late. You learn by experience. You'll have to go to the archives to read the earlier sections. For those of you in suspense, there are six more paragraphs to go.

Today Henry was very upset when Skipper went to a birthday party. He eventually calmed down and we had a good time while Sarah and Skipper went to the party. Later I took the boys grocery shopping and Henry ran into his friend Graham at the store. Eventually Henry went home with Graham to play at his house, and wouldn't you know it, but Skipper got very upset that he couldn't go too.

This brings me back to one of my original revelations; the spring high tides occur at approximately the same time of day twice during each lunar month. The corollary to this revelation is that the spring lows also occur at approximately the same time twice during each lunar cycle. In Narragansett Bay, for example, the spring tide lows always occur in early afternoon. In Boston, they occur in the late afternoon, and at Sandy Hook, New Jersey or Hells Gate, almost the same time as Narragansett Bay.

But also of interest is the time of low water, and how low it is. As the laws of physics, and the persistent Eldridge footnote tell us, "When a high tide exceeds average height, the following low tide will be lower than average." There can be great exhilaration in catching a flood and completing a passage ahead of schedule, just as there can be great frustration in battling a current even with a good wind, never seeming to reach one's destination. Even more frustrating is a grounding in the middle of a channel due to a low tide "that is lower than average."

I have written about sailing and a little about horse racing and golf. I believe that your life experiences and interests should provide a foundation for your own personality and what you bring to your family. Both sailing and horse racing have offered me guidance in dealing with the boys. From sailing, I know that getting through each day with their antics, tantrums, and periods of joy is like a long sail with the wind on your nose, or no wind. You're wet and cold, or hot and sweaty, and you never seem to get to your destination. What keeps you going is the anticipation that you will get there and what you will find when you arrive. Patience is required. With horse racing, I've seen many 2 year olds loaded in the gate. There is no rhyme or reason to their antics. Patience is all that counts.

This morning I lost it with Skipper. He woke up angry. He kept screaming over nothing; he refused to eat or be changed. I finally jumped in the shower and he came into the bathroom screaming at me to get out. I screamed back. Sarah came flying up the stairs angry at me, Henry woke up, and Skipper continued to scream. And then suddenly, there was quiet. Skipper was hungry; Skipper wanted to put on his own clothes; Skipper wanted to go to school. Should I have screamed? I don't think so. All that was needed was patience. Sarah had it (this time); I didn't.

There are all kinds of reasons to be interested in this. My particular concern that spring, determining the right opportunity to prepare my rudder for launching is probably the least significant. The focus of the tables we read is on the time of high water and how high above the normal high it is. This is important for gauging the speed of the current as we attempt to voyage in the Southern New England cruising area, be it through the Race, Vineyard Sound, or the infamous Pollock Rip Channel.

My most frequent insomniatic Eldridge reading is the page entitled "The Tides and the Moon." It tells us that while the mass of the sun is 26 million times that of the moon, it is also 390 times as far away as the moon. The end result being that the moon has "approximately" 2.17 times the effect on our tides as does the sun based upon cubing the two distances adjusted for mass. It also tells us in one page, no less, and less significantly, that the moon's elliptical position affects the height of the tides, "the tides being highest when the moon is at perigee", or closest to the earth. Also, essential to the pilot, it notes that new moon daylight tides will be higher than the evening tide, while at full moon the night tide will be higher than the daytime high.

This weekend was the greatest sports weekend of the year. And this is saying something because I'm a big Patriots fan. But my true sports passions, thankfully curtailed by family obligations and interests, are horse racing and golf. On Saturday, we had the Wood, Blue Grass,and Arkansas Derby. Each was an interesting race and established the 3 year olds to beat in three weeks. Tapit, the winner of the Wood, The Cliffs Edge and Lion Heart, one two in the Bluegrass, and Smarty Jones the winner in Hot Springs, have fully established themselves. Only bad racing luck, always possible at Churchill Downs with a large field, will keep one of these from the winners circle.

And today, the final round of the Masters. I only saw the last half hour live, but wow! The number of great shots not only by Mickelson and Els, but also others, set some sort of magical record.

By observation and events as well as my review of the Eldridge, I now know two things. First, the full moon always rises within an hour of the sun setting, and second, the spring high tides always occur at approximately the same time of day. One follows logically from the other.

Today for our Good Friday dinner the boys and I made mussels and clams over pasta with garlic and wine and red pepper flakes and thyme with nice crunchy French bread. A good seaboard meal. We also got some shrimp for Sarah to keep her happy.

My friendly but occasionally thoughtless boat yard hauled my Pearson 33 this past fall and located her on the edge of a bulkhead with the stern hanging over the water. This made preparing and painting the rudder and compounding the stern a challenge. I realized that at a spring tide I could float a skiff beside the bulkhead and work from below to complete the work. What I later realized from my insomnia induced perusal of the Eldridge was that all spring high tides throughout the year in Narragansett Bay, whether at new or full moon, occur either early in the daylight morning or in early evening. So, a Saturday morning snooze was interrupted to take advantage of this biweekly occurrence.

I've been away. I switched to DSL at home on Friday night which was easy, but I've been struggling with the software and Email. It's like getting a new, roomier, and faster boat but some of the basics are just different enough to screw you up. It's been bright and sunny but cold and windy. Nice winter days - but it's spring!

Several years ago I was anchored in Cuttyhunk Pond and viewed a spectacular rising of the full moon shortly after the sun set. A lunar month later I viewed a similarly spectacular full moon from my home at approximately the same time of day. I realized by observation, some common sense, and confirmed by my insomniatic reading of the Eldridge, that the full moon always rises within an hour of sunset. A century ago, absent the opportunity to spend evenings watching TV, or exploring the Internet, or even reading by electric light, I have to believe most everyone was aware of this phenomena. Today, most people are surprised, disbelieving, or at least thoughtful when I inform them of this observation.

I've been thinking about what my next boat will be. It will have to be something the boys will appreciate, but if we start early enough, something that will also be safe. I've thought about trying to buy the Sophie Ruth back at some point, or maybe Charter her, but its probably best to move on. Her big problem was the small Main. She looked pretty fast, but she was really pretty slow. If I went back to Standish, they could probably find me a Cape Dory. It would be nice to try a full keel.

Returning to Eldridge:

Sometimes I think about future cruises and evaluate convenient departure times months in the future for a current assisted passage East from Narragansett Bay to the Islands or the Cape Cod Canal, or West through the Race. Other times I will simply evaluate the tides over the next couple of weeks with no particular purpose in mind other than to identify the day and time of the highest tide of the month.